There are some pieces you can add up to create inequality expectations.

Housing is likely a $8 trillion loss versus 2006 by when the bottom occurs. Subtract this from the balance sheets of the bottom 90% of the income distribution. I would suggest $100,000 on average. (You may notice there’s hardly any data on net worth by income, and that’s now crucial to understanding where inequality is going.) This $100k loss puts the majority of people into $0 net worth.

Investments declined a lot, subtract this from the top 10%, but this is on its way back, and will likely reach former nominal values well before housing does.

In terms of Gini, the loss of housing equity and the recovery of securities losses will result in a huge jump. Any guesses? I’m guessing about 0.05. Unsuspecting economists will have to change their underwear.

But, we’re not done. We’ve got some really large figure designated to guarantee debts and other financial system rescue programs in addition to a relatively small figure spent on stimulus. The big one (what is it, $12.8tr, $15tr, $18tr? I’ve seen lots of estimates, but it’s big.) flows onto the big balance sheets as the guarantees are exercised and losses avoided. So wealth is preserved at the top, decimated at the bottom. The income from the preserved wealth flows onto the largest income statements. Maybe $13tr at 5% gets you $650b in preserved income in the top 10%.

I mean, it’s bad now, but it’s bound to get much worse.